Bhubaneswar: While Cyclone ‘Asani’ has dissipated, development of tropical systems over the Bay of Bengal during the pre-monsoon season is seemingly far from getting over as the North Indian Ocean may host a fresh depression, this month.
As per the ‘North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis’ issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), ECMWF deterministic and ECMWF probabilistic models are indicating likely formation of a depression over the eastcentral Bay of Bengal during first half of week 1 (May 13 to May 19) with gradual east-northeastwards movement.
However, IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, GEFS, NCUM and NEPS models are not indicating any development during the forecast period, the outlook said.
The outlook concluded that a low pressure area is likely to form over eastcentral Bay of Bengal towards the end of week 1 (May 13 to May 19) in association with advance of southwest monsoon over the region. There is low probability that the system would intensify into a depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal during the beginning of week 2 (May 20 to May 26).
The IMD was yet to make any prediction regarding the possibility of further intensification of the forecasted system.
Eminent meteorologist Jason Nicholls also predicted about tropical development over South China Sea and/ or Bay of Bengal later next week.
Watching for tropical development in the South China Sea &/or NE Bay of Bengal later next week as strengthening MJO moves into phases 5 & 6 coupled with an equatorial Rossby wave pushes west. pic.twitter.com/NoUiS8KBdn
— Jason Nicholls (@jnmet) May 12, 2022